28 Sep Please reply to both POST1: and POST2: in at least
Please reply to both POST1: and POST2: in at least 200 words each. I have also included the professors comments and references for you. The professors comments do not need a reply.RequiredChapter 14 in Project Management ToolboxPart 1, Chapter 11 in A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide), 6th editionBotezatu, M. A. (2016). Insight into project risk management. Journal of Information Systems & Operations Management, 1-14. Qi, A. (2015). Chinese traditional management philosophy and project risk management. Organization, Technology & Management in Construction, 7(1).RecommendedPiney, C. (2012). Integrated project risk and issuemanagement. Paper presented at PMI® Global Congress 2012—EMEA,Marsailles, France. Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute.Retrieved from https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/integrated-project-risk-issue-management-6303 Professor comments:Colleagues,Startdigging now … I am looking for your thoughts on this one. Note Task 1is Start-to-Start with Task 2, and then Task 2 and Task 1 have aprecedence relationship with Task 3. What do you make of this? Do you think this can impact the project end date?Here is another clue, Colleagues.Tasks1, 7, and 8. Do you see the slack? What does that say to you? Tasks 2,3, 4, 5, and 6 are our Critical Path. What does that suggest our ProjectTimeline might be?Something else to ponder.Theoriginal intent is the triangle issue where task 1 is a start-to-startwith task 2 — and it also is finish-to-start with Task 3 — while task 2is a finish-to-start with task 3. Do you see any implications there forthe timeline of the project?Iunderstand another question. So long as the PM manages the flow thereshould be little issue. Task 2 is a start -to-start with task 1, so, arewe bound to start task 1 immediately (as depicted) or can we wait –based on the slack we see?POST1: The linked bar chart shows the activities, their durationin days, and the types of relationships. The duration of Task 1 iscurrently two days however that may not be correct. The duration ofTask 1 follows a triangle distribution with parameters of 1, 2, and 8.The project manager needs to calculate the triangle distribution tofigure out the actual duration for Task 1. Triangular Distribution According to Martinelli & Milosevich (2016), “threevalues are used to describe a very simple and popular triangulardistribution” (p. 403). The values, minimum (L); most likely (M); andmaximum (H), represent the task duration in days. For Task 1, theminimum (L) is 1; the most likely (M) is 2, and the maximum (H) is 8.The values are used to calculate the mean using the following formula:(L + M + H)/3 or (1 + 2 + 8)/3 = 3.67 days (Martinelli & Milosevich,2016). Note. Adapted from Projectmanagement toolbox: Tools and techniques for the practicing projectmanager (2nd ed.) by R.J. Martinelli & D.Z. Milosevich, 2016, JohnWiley and Sons, p. 404. According to the triangular distribution, Task 1 willmost likely take 2 days. However, the task could take anywhere from 1to 8 days. The mean for the task is 3.67 days. This means that thedistribution is asymmetrical as the most likely value does not equal themean (Iordanova, 2020). Project End Date The linked bar chart shows that Tasks 1 and 2 start onthe same date. However, Task 2 lasts approximately 5 days. Task 3starts after Task 2 is complete. So, as long as Tasks 1 and 2 arecompleted before Task 3 is scheduled to start, the project end dateshould not be impacted. ReferencesIordanova, T. (2020, January 19). Bet smarter with the Monte Carlosimulation. Retrieved fromhttps://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/monte_car…Martinelli, R. J., & Milosevich, D. Z. (2016). Project management toolbox: Tools and techniques for the practicing project manager (2nd ed.). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley and SonsPOST2:Thereis risk everywhere when it comes to projects. There are risks that areexpected and are mitigated by any means, and then there is unexpectedrisks that can cause harm to a project, but how much harm and where iswhat risk management is used to find out. Martinelli & Milosevich(2016) state that during a project, ‘a project manager will face asituation where they have along list of risk events, and little clue ofthe impact they may have on the project goals,’ and that ‘a Monte Carloanalysis can be performed to quantiﬁably evaluate the potential impactof the critical risks.’ One of the tools part of the Monte Carlo that isused to find unexpected risks during a project and the duration thatthey may last is the use of triangular distribution. The triangulardistribution ‘a common formula used when there is insufficienthistorical data to estimate duration of an activity. It is based onthree points that consider estimation uncertainty and risk’ (PMI, 2017).Looking at the linked bar chart above, a project manager can make outseveral points that can describe the process of the project. One of themajor points is that there is a connection between Task 1, and Task 2and the possible risk on the schedule that these activities may have.Using the uncertainty and risk tool of triangle distribution, theproject manager can take three points and create a risk assessment.These three points are: Most Likely (M), Optimistic (O), and Pessimistic(P). Once the PM has gathered the points, then it can be plugged intoeither the formula of Triangular Distribution, which is (P+O+M)/3, oruse a similar formula of Bata Distribution (PERT) (which is used when anample amount of historical data is present (PMI,2017)), which is(P+4ML+O)/6 (Martinelli & Milosevich, 2016, pg 404). Taking Task 1and plugging it into either formulas using the parameters given, theProject Manger would get:Triangular Distribution: (8+1+2)/3 = 3.68 daysBeta Distribution: (8+4(2)+1)/6 = 2.84 daysUsing the risk techniques of triangular and beta distribution,project managers are able to see that Task 1 will take roughly 3 days tocomplete. Knowing this information, and seeing that the beginning ofTask 3 is in relationship to the end of Task 2, and Task 2 has a lengthof 5 days, Task 1 should not be a risk, or should be considered a lowlevel risk at most, and should have no effect on the project end date.Martinelli, R. J., & Milosevich, D. Z. (2016). Project managementtoolbox: Tools and techniques for the practicing project manager (2nded.). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley and SonsProject Management Institute (PMI). (2017). A guide to the projectmanagement body of knowledge (PMBOK® Guide): Agile practice guide (6thed.). Newton Square, PA: PMI Publications.